President Hillary Clinton

I went to a confab called "Dialog" last week, two days of a somewhat heterogenous crowd (meaning not just technology people, though mostly white and mostly middle-upper class professionals) talking about stuff that seems to matter. I figured that meant we should be arguing about interesting topics. (One problem I have with California, after 20+ years, is that people seem to take personally strongly delivered arguments.)

So I came prepared with a strong argument: 1) Hillary Clinton will be nominated as the next Democratic presidential candidate; 2) Hillary Clinton will defeat the Republican nominee, whoever it is, to be the first female president of the United States in 2009; and 3) she will make a great president.

Oh, boy, did I get a reaction. Most people who know me know that I'm pretty conservative politically (which might be why Californians generally take my arguments so personally). So the idea that I would think a Democratic president of any gender would be a great president seems surprising.

Here's what I learned:

*Virtually everybody thinks that Hillary is unelectable because she is so unlikeable. Democrats, particularly liberal Democrats, believe this most strongly and are worried that the party can't stand up to her to avoid nominating her and having her be beat by the Republicans, like Gore and Skerry.
*Nobody has strong feelings about any candidate that supercedes convenience. In other words, nobody seems really taken by any individual to the point where they garner support regardless of conditions. Everybody likes Barak Obama, except he's too young and inexperienced. A small group think Mark Warner is a hot property, except that he doesn't speak so good and is virtually unknown. Who's Bill Richardson, oh that guy who's governor of New Mexico. So on and so forth.
*The Republicans have just as big a problem finding a candidate as the Democrats. McCain is too old. Dean is already busted. Jeb is Jeb.

All of this supports my theory that Hillary will get the nomination (by default) and will win the election (also probably by default). But the part that really got people going is the idea that she will be a great president: after her Mrs. President proposal on health care? Hah!

But the one proposal (and I'm sorry I can't remember who said it me) is that Rudy Giuliani would be the one Republican candidate who could take on Hillary Clinton and win. People say he's too liberal and would never survive the Southern fundamentlists. Now that sounds like an interesting race and scenario.

Comments

[Jim Forbes]

Stew,Good take on Senator Clinton. The one Dem I wish would run again is Bob Kerrey. And, congrats on getting to an "non- technology" conference. One of the real joys of my life now is being able to go to lectures and discussions at colleges and universities here in SoCal. Being able to get exposure to new thinking on issues that really interest me has opened my life for new opportunities in active roles as a volunteer with organizations such as CalTrout andother groups.
Good post, Stew!
Be well,

Jim Forbes

[Pete Dailey]

I think Joe Biden would make a better candidate, and a better President. Check out his essay in the NY Times, or his appearances on Meet The Press or Real Time. Biden's got the foreign policy chops to deal with Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

[Jan]

Now that we know that Gore actually does have a sense of humour--his stint on Saturday Night Live was hilarious--maybe we are headed to another Clinton/ Gore ticket!

And congrats to Robin-- I give you credit for Stewart's third point-- that Hillary (or any Democrat) would make a good President!

Jan Brandt

[Andrew Eisner]

You know who would be an interesting candidate if he didn't have some weird problem with his voice; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Very smart sensible guy and great environmentalist.